In this study, we have evaluated multiple local energy system scenarios to find the optimal energy system design concepts for the” future” EnBW-Areal. In this study,
• we developed a 3D CityGML model for the EnBW-Areal and along with other calculation tools, estimated the electricity, heat, and hot water related energy demand profiles for the neighborhood.
• we evaluated multiple energy supply options that includes energy sources and conversion technologies to meet the estimated total energy demand.
• we evaluated the cost minimized technology mixes that achieves reduced CO2 emissions and compared the different energy system scenarios against a baseline energy system.
The annual electrical, heating, and hot water energy demand for the EnBW-Areal is estimated to be 2.88 GWh, 1.57 GWh, and 1.77 GWh, respectively.
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The estimated hourly heat energy demand (units: kW)
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The estimated hourly energy demand for hot water generation (units: kW)
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Electricity demand for non-residential spaces (units: kW)
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Electricity demand for residential and spaces (units: kW)
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The study shows that the EnBW-Areal has a feasible potential to utilize approx. 30-35% of the roof area to generate local electricity from solar PV. As a result, the energy consumption related CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30% compared to the base scenario evaluated in this study at an 8% less cost. PV curtailment due to over production and feed-in constraints could lower the share of integrated PV generation significantly above 35% penetration levels. There are both technological and market-based strategies to optimally integrate the local PV generation. However, such concepts must be analyzed further in greater detail.
High-efficient heat pumps can both reduce the CO2 emissions and the primary energy use. A direct comparison between the heat pumps and district heating is tricky because the emissions from a district heating plant heavily depends on it’s fuel mix. In Stuttgart, it is common to use a fuel mix comprising of coal, gas, and municipal waste to generate heat.
It is more economically feasible to schedule the heat pump operation to supply the base-load heating and hot water demand. That increases the utilization of heat pump capacity, and therefore the rate of return on the investment.
Thermal storages improve the utilization of heat pump capacity. The flexibility of thermal storage units to meet the peak demand enable the heat pumps to be slightly undersized for the base-load operation.
The capacity of heat pump(s) is allocated to supply base-load heat demand. The valley points of heat pump operation are filled by thermal storage charging action to improve heat pump capacity utilization.
Thermal storages improve the utilization of heat pump capacity. The flexibility of thermal storage units to meet the peak demand enable the heat pumps to be slightly undersized for the base-load operation.
The adoption of residential battery storages in Germany is driven by the self-consumption optimization objective. At lower PV levels, the generated PV electricity can be directly consumed, hence the benefits of battery systems are less. However, at higher PV penetration levels and when innovative market designs enable the participation of battery storage systems to provide other services to the electricity network, the value of battery storage systems can increase rapidly.
The answer to this question has two layers. The first layer is the aggregated system level feasibility, which is what we can see from our study. The second layer is the benefit distribution and economic feasibility at the individual prosumer level that is something that requires much deeper analysis.
We see at the system level; the local energy transition has a positive outlook. Some of the scenarios that we looked at recovered their total investment within the first 8 years.
Comparison of the return of investment in each scenario until the breakeven point compared to the base scenario (units: EUR)
